A1D5.1
From Soteria
Name: D5.1 Online flare prediction model
Lead Beneficiary: ROB
Beneficiaries involved: CNRS
Due Date: Month 24 (Nov 2010)
Goal
The goal is deliver a 'flare prediction model'. This would be a software package that, based on the automated analysis of recent data, gives a probability of flare to happen in the coming few hours.
Progress so far
ROB (David Berghmans)
We decided to carry out the development in two steps.
1. a baseline flare prediction model based on sunspot group classifications (see also WP2).
We have implemented the flare prediction model based on the ideas by P. McIntosh (see section 4 and further). We have set-up a tool that automatically collects NOAA active regions locations and numbers, Catania Sunspot group locations, numbers and corresponding McIntosh group classifications. The tool combines all this information on a daily overview plot but also records in a database a-posteriori the number of flares that in each McIntosh type of sunspot group occurred. The system has been trained by filling the database the with the last few years of McIntosh group classes and their flare prediction rate. For every new sunspot group, the McIntosh group classification (as observed by the Catania Observatory) is used to lookup in the database what the chance is for significant flaring rate.
The system is ready in a basic version and we await now the beginning of solar cycle 24 to further operational test its performance.
2. an additional research-grade module to the above flare prediction model
In the coming months, the next generation of space weather instruments will become operational in space. This includes SWAP and LYRA onboard PROBA2 (launch Nov 2 2009) and AIA onboard SDO (launch Feb 2 2010). We plan to extend the above system with a module that is based on this new data. The timelines from LYRA (or others like GOES X-rays) or integrated flux from active region subfields of SWAP or AIA will be scanned for exceptional variability. Such variability will be an extra indication (on top of the McIntosh configuration) whether a flare is imminent.
The development of this extra module is in standby until we receive the SWAP, LYRA and SDO data.
Problem areas
None so far.
