Contents 1 Task 4:5 Space weather model validation and forcasting (Hvar, ROB, KFKI, UOulu, KUL, DTU, IEEA, Noveltis) 1.1 Deliverable 4.6 – Scientific analysis report, Task4.5, a-g (KUL) 1.2 Deliverable 4.7 –Data assimilation report, Task 4.5.h-j (Noveltis) 1.3 Deliverable 4.8 -Online predictive and diagnostics tools: (ROB) 2 Summary of the Discussion in Brussel in February (from David) 3 Additional points discussed during the 3rd Annual Meeting

Task 4:5 Space weather model validation and forcasting (Hvar, ROB, KFKI, UOulu, KUL, DTU, IEEA, Noveltis)

Based on the results of Tasks 1-3 we will improve existing capability and develop new methods for space weather forcasting, including:

Deliverable 4.6 – Scientific analysis report, Task4.5, a-g (KUL)

• Prediction of arrival time of interplanetary CMEs at the Earth (Hvar)
• Prediction of geomagnetic disturbances associated with high-speed streams from coronal holes (Hvar)
• Validation of the Solar Particle Engineering Code (SOLPENCO) for extreme events (KFKI)
• Model validation and prediction of near-Earth solar wind disturbances associated with ICMEs and high speed solar wind streams:

1. Enlil (DTU)
2. ICME (HVAR)
3. high speed prediction from coronal holes, (GRAZ+HVAR)
4. geo-effectiveness (DTU, UOulu, KFKI)

• Short-term prediction of the magnetic storms and the time development of the improved Dst (UOulu, ROB)
• Long-term forcasting of coronal hole and solar activity centre occurrence (UOulu)
• Prediction of scintillations (IEEA)

Deliverable 4.7 –Data assimilation report, Task 4.5.h-j (Noveltis)

• Evaluation of how initialization and assimilation schemes (optimal interpolation, Kalman filter, variational methods) can be adapted to introduce observational information in the modelling
• Investigation the respective advantages and drawbacks of assimilatingquantities that are directly expressed as model variable, or conversely quantities that are close to the instrumental measurements
• Provision of “on the shelf” assimilation tools and tentative test in a model with assimilation/initialisation prototyping

Deliverable 4.8 -Online predictive and diagnostics tools: (ROB)

• Corrected real-time Dst index: Dcx (36m) (UOulu)
• A user friendly multi-parameter forecast system for predicting ICME

arrival (36m) (HVAR)

• Prediction of geomagnetic disturbances associated with high-speed streams from coronal holes (36m) (HVAR, UOulu)
• Prediction of ionospheric scintillations (IEEA, , Noveltis)

Summary of the Discussion in Brussel in February (from David)

CONTRIBUTION BOJAN

• Bojan is not present.
• teleconference with Bojan & Graz (coronal hole detector) as soon as they are is available

CONTRIBUTION OULO

• Timo: will demonstrate the principle to predict 1 hour ahead from last ACE data point for 3 current systems, every hour.

• Outside SOTERIA: Maria-Elena will send the ACE predictions of 2005-2006 without Bz but with |B|

Timo will plug in a model for the sign of Bz. Predicted data points on daily basis. TImo will do an hourly 'inteprolation'

• Timo will write 4.6e) short term, Kalevi will write 4.6f) long term

CONTRIBUTION YANNICK

• will develop a tool that the user can specify a scenario (satellite, epoch) and the model predicts the signal strength taking into account the orbit & ionosphere.

• input that is used is F10.7cm radioflux: David will give it on a daily basis.

CONTRIBUTION ROB

• will write down how ROB does geomagnetic predictions.

CONCLUSION 4.6

• structure of report is 7 sections (a-g + ROB component), each section should have a fixed template:

1. input: which parameters, availability,
2. output: what does it produce? Over which timescales do the predictions apply?
3. abstract: top level description (for user manual)
4. model description: full details, extend as long as needed, physical principles, main methods,
5. physical limitations: inherent limits of the model used, when not to use, known problems, might include future lines of investigations
6. technical requirements: super computer? network access? operators?
7. building and validation: how was this tested, validated (accurate physical modeling)? Accuracy?

• report should be written beginning of summer. September we should have first draft
• Giovanni aims at writing in Latex and references in Bibtex. Giovanni will send a message to probe if everybody is ready for that. This point has been agreed upon during the 3rd annual meeting, allowing for one exception: Yannick.
• Bojan to confirm if this is all ok. Maria Elena has contacted Bojan who agreed. Further interactions will follow

CONCLUSION 4.8

• should be summarized on http://soteria-space.eu/spacetools.php

but the actual tools are hosted on each institute's server/website

• Giovanni will ask for a short paragraph on each item, to be collected via wiki. This point is now obsolete because the abstracts of each model in D4.6 will be used for this end
• some section of the report of 4.6 will become the user manual of 4.8

Additional points discussed during the 3rd Annual Meeting

• The short paragraph needed for the web page of D4.8 will be the abstract from each item taken out of D4.6
• Latex will be used as template, making one exception for Yannick only.
• Kalevi makes the point that long term predictions under his leadership are not an operative working model. While striving to conform his section of the D4.6 with the others, some deviance from the norm will be allowed for this special case.