Comments YR2

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Contents

WP3

Comments

D3.2 This report contains some interesting results and discussion. It is noted that 12 CMEs have been modelled and there is the intention through the project to extend this to the full list in the appended table. According to the workplan this deliverable has been concluded so can you confirm where this appears in the list of soteria deliverables?

Responses

We have continued the CME identification and modelling efforts and completed a list since launch until end of 2011. The results are as follows: Total number of CMES: 565 (these compare about 1:1 to SOHO CMEs with an angular width larger 40 degrees). Time interval: 01.01.2007 - 31.12.2010 - 93 CMEs in 2007 - 81 CMEs in 2008 - 120 CMEs in 2009 - 271 CMEs in 2010 CME observations span a separation angle of SA and SB up to 175,4 degrees in ecliptic longitude. The COR2 best-of-list includes 118 events for the given time interval based on appearance of their WL intensities and structures. All have now been modelled and the statsitical analysis is under way. Modelling of CMEs has now been extended to the interplanetary medium and can be applied to SECCHI/HI data. Of special importance are those events which were observed in the Sun-Earth direction (e.g., April 3-8 and August 01-05 in 2010).

The new CME lists and the modelling results can be made available online through the SOTERIA database at UNIGRAZ which already includes the COR2 CME list reported of in D3.2.

New Version of the report

The coordinator notes that no new version of this report is needed. Any differing opinion?

WP4

Comments

D4.2

Contains some interesting results and a nice comparison of the different modelling techniques. A few minor comments:

1. p40 includes a statement that both models can be used in SW forecasting. While that may be true, the statement would need to be made based on more than one event and also taking into account issues such as run-time and the level of manual intervention necessary. The report moves onto some of these points later in fact.

2. along similar lines, p44 asks the reader to compare tables 2.2 and 2.4 to illustrate that DBM and ENLIL are comparable. Since both tables include DBM results, I presume that this wasn't the intention. Can you confirm?

3. use of CCMC/ENLIL is mentioned. We discussed the use of this during the review meeting. Was the CCMC version used exclusively here? Can you say how the version that was generated by soteria will be used during the remainder of the project?

4. section 3, As stated in the report, this model shows some promise as a possible forecasting tool. Note that the model testing has been done using the level 2 data. For real time forecasting it would be necessary to see how this behaves on the real time data also.

5. section 3.3 notes that data assimilation improves the accuracy in case of CMEs. This gives some potentially interesting results. I may well have missed something here but it wasn't clear to me where the CME information comes from in the data assimilation technique. Can you explain or point me to this?

Responses

Thank you very much for the comments. In response we have made a revised version of the deliverable. Below we provide, for each comment, a response and a description of the revision made to the deliverable.

1. Comment: p40 includes a statement that both models can be used in SW forecasting. While that may be true, the statement would need to be made based on more than one event and also taking into account issues such as run-time and the level of manual intervention necessary. The report moves onto some of these points later in fact.

>>>>> Response: Yes, this statement is maybe put here too early. In the revised version of D4.2 we transferred it to pg. 45 (end of Sect. 2.2), i.e., after presenting the ENLIL results for all nine events from the “SOTERIA event-list” (Sect. 2.2.7; Table 2.6). The ENLIL run lasts approx 0.5-1 hr, whereas DBM needs only a few minutes (also added on pg. 45). Thus, both methods can be readily used in real-time forecasting (see also the item 3 below).


2. Comment: along similar lines, p44 asks the reader to compare tables 2.2 and 2.4 to illustrate that DBM and ENLIL are comparable. Since both tables include DBM results, I presume that this wasn't the intention. Can you confirm?

>>>>> Response: Indeed, this was a typing error (it should be „tables 2.2 and 2.6“). Corrected in the revised version of D4.2.


3. Comment: use of CCMC/ENLIL is mentioned. We discussed the use of this during the review meeting. Was the CCMC version used exclusively here? Can you say how the version that was generated by soteria will be used during the remainder of the project?

>>>>> Response: Yes, Sect. 2.2. is devoted to CCMC results exclusively. As a matter of fact, the plan of SOTERIA was/is to develop the forecasting tool that employs the (analytical) drag-based-model, i.e., ENLIL was used only to check differences in results obtained by numerical-simulations and the analytical approach (similar was done in the case of high-speed streams). Thus, in the remaining period we will focus on detailed validation of DBM (to be presented in D4.6) and putting in operation public DBM online tool (a part of D4.8). Regarding the validation (to be presented in D4.6), let us say that besides extending the statistical analysis (already partly presented in Sect. 2.1.7) and the STEREO-based case-study approach (already partly presented in Sect. 2.1.6), we intend to perform real-time tests of DBM performances by employing information from the “SOHO-halo-alert” spaceweather system.


4. Comment: section 3, As stated in the report, this model shows some promise as a possible forecasting tool. Note that the model testing has been done using the level 2 data. For real time forecasting it would be necessary to see how this behaves on the real time data also.

>>>>> Response: Very good point indeed. We will certainly do this in the frame of D4.6 (model validation).


5. Comment: section 3.3 notes that data assimilation improves the accuracy in case of CMEs. This gives some potentially interesting results. I may well have missed something here but it wasn't clear to me where the CME information comes from in the data assimilation technique. Can you explain or point me to this?

>>>>> Response: As a matter of fact, this was a byproduct of the application of Data Assimilation to the high-speed stream forecasting. Thus, there is no direct CME-data input. DA simply “reacts” to the difference between predicted and observed values. So, it “corrects” the new prediction by taking into account the error in the previous one. For this reason, in the case of the CME signal, the observed and predicted curves are shifted by one day (i.e., the applied resolution). Thus, the method cannot predict the ICME onset, nor the maximum in the signal. It only reduces the “observed-predicted” difference after the disturbance has already arrived. In the case of HSSs it is not so, since we have a well-defined link between the source (coronal hole) and the consequence (signal in the solar wind).

New Version of the report

The coordinator notes that a new version of this report with minor correction might be needed. Any differing opinion? Please, if agreed, provide it by Monday February 27.

WP5

Comments

D5.1

The report lacks some information on the implementation of the prediction technique and a discussion of the expected accuracy and forecast lead time. Results of preliminary testing would also be useful here.

The images page (http://sidc.be/SOTERIA/FLARE/images/10.png) has some nice plots, more info such as the thresholds, update rate and time of last update would be useful.

Responses

Responses

New Version of the report

The coordinator notes that a new version of this report with some significant correction might be needed. Any differing opinion? Please, if agreed, provide it by Monday February 27.

WP6

Comments

D6.3 Since some of the software is based on VSO, are there any software licensing implications here? The documentation included on the SODA website is far more extensive than that recorded in the deliverable report. It's also quite necessary for future use, in e.g. the case mentioned during the review meeting that SODA might in future become part of HELIO.

It would be useful to document somewhere in the Wiki the data that is available via SODA as more is incorporated.

D6.5 The report was found to lack important details and the website appears to be rather preliminary. Recommend updating this when completed.

D6.6 The report should be updated following completion of the workshop, along similar lines to the recommendations above for the ICTP school.

D6.7 Not complete.

D6.8 This reads well. You might consider adding more information about the lists available on the website, particularly those that aren't so well known to encourage people to take a longer look. Info on latest data available in the database would also be useful and frequency of update if possible.

Responses

D6.3

  • There are no license implication: the software is not based on VSO, only inspired on it. There is no common code.
  • The public, online documentation is indeed more extensive than the private, deliverable report. In this way, the maximal information is available to everybody allowing for efficient coordination with HELIO.
  • SODA will not be part of HELIO. HELIO will use SODA through Web services (work is on going) but this is the only link between the two. It is also the case with VSO. Helio uses VSO but VSO is not part of HELIO.
  • The list of available providers and datasets is maintained automatically by the SODA server. url is http://soteria.oma.be:8080/soda/information.iface As requested, this information will be advertized more clearly.

D6.5

  • We are late on D6.5 due to readjustments that were needed following the use of D6.4. We plan to have on-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere approximately in a month or so after complete delivery of spectral solar irradiance data from D6.4. The website and report update will be complete half a month later.

D6.6

  • The Capacity Building Workshop took part Feb 15- Feb 16 and was a great success with >50 participants. The deliverable report will be adapted asap.

D6.7

  • D6.7 is indeed not ready yet but is progressing well.

D6.8

  • The deliverable report D6.8 has been updated: at p.7 we mention how the catalogues are updated).
  • The SOSEC website has been updated: it includes now the cron-job which will be executed daily in order to get the latest versions of the various catalogues.

New Version of the report

  • D6.3 will be updated with a statement about software rights by Tuesday evening March 1.
  • D6.6 will be updated with the outcome of the CBW by Tuesday evening March 1.
  • D6.7 We expect the deliverable to be available within a few weeks.
  • D6.8 Was updated, new version is available.
  • D6.5 New version of the report has been prepared.
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