A1D4.8

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Lead Beneficiary: ROB

Beneficiaries involved: UOulu, DTU, HVAR, IEEA, KULeuven, ROB

Due Date: Nov 2011

Contents

Goal

A set of tools for real-time monitoring and prediction will be delivered for on-line dissemination including:

  • Corrected real-time Dst index: Dcx (UOulu, DTU)
  • A multi parameter forecast system for predicting ICME arrival (HVAR)
  • Prediction of geomagnetic disturbances associated with high-speed streams from coronal

holes (HVAR, UOulu)

  • Prediction of ionospheric scintillations. (IEEA, KULeuven)

Progress so far

This deliverable is about the online dissemination of tools that are still in full development (see respective deliverables). Meanwhile the actual online dissemination is in standby until we are further into the project. However, the following progress can already be reported:

UOulu

The first version of the Dcx index web server, including historical indices was established. We have calculated the local and global Dcx and Dxt(Dst) indices at hourly resolution using the traditional 4 Dst stations (HER, HON, KAK, SJG) for the time interval 1932 to 2007. We have collected an extended data base of magnetic observations from 16 low to mid-latitude stations in 2000-2007 and calculated the local and global indices for the stations of this extended network. The server retrieves and plots these indices for the time intervals selected by the user at hourly, daily or yearly resolution. Moreover, we have constructed videos demonstrating the local disturbances for those storm time intervals that were selected for detailed study within WP4. The service will be further developed to include more recent data, with the final aim of real-time service of hourly indices. The collection of real-time data and the related development of the real-time data server was started by making agreements with several magnetometer stations on data access and transfer.


HVAR An analytical drag-based model of the propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) was developed (related to Task 4.1; see also A1D4.2; a paper submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics). The model is anticipated as the base of the real-time multi-parameter forecast system for predicting arrival of ICMEs at the Earth. The model performances were checked by utilizing the set of Sun-Earth events selected for D4.1. Currently, preparations for testing of the model on a larger sample of events are in progress. After verifying performances of the model, it will be adjusted (in collaboration with ROB) for on-line dissemination. Considering the real-time forecasting system for predicting the geomagnetic effects of the solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs), an empirical model based on tracking of the passage of coronal holes over the solar disc was advanced to a higher level of accuracy. The model predicts physical characteristics of HSSs at the Earth, and the behavior of the associated geomagnetic disturbances at the six-hour resolution (a paper in preparation). Currently, the model uses as the input the GOES-SXI soft X-ray observations. In the next step, the model will be adjusted to the real-time EUV observations of coronal holes (UNIGRAZ-HVAR collaboration), and prepared for on-line dissemination (UNIGRAZ-HVAR-ROB collaboration).

IEEA In relation with the geophysical parameters, there is a climatology for the appearence of scintillations. There is a daily local time dependency, a seasonal dependency and the events strength is related to the solar activity. The development of a climatological model based on the analysis of measurements is on progress.

ROB Elke D'Huys has been trained as ROB/SIDC system administrator for aspects related to the SIDC forecaster center. She is ready to receive and install tools as soon as they become available.

Problem areas

None so far.

Suggestions for spin-off, collaboration or improvement

These options need to be assessed further into the project.

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